Super Bowl LVIII was rather uninspiring for 3 quarters but an exciting finish kept viewers on their toes as Mahomes and the Chiefs came back from yet another double digit deficit to beat the 49ers 25-22 in OT. The common theme for most bettors was simple, “I cannot bet against Mahomes in a big game; especially not as an underdog”. And they were rewarded again by this generational QB that just gets it done time and again. This edition of the Chiefs struggled mightily offensively for most of the season with drops and limited trusted receivers but when it mattered most Mahomes, backed by a very solid defense, did just enough to win his 3rd Super Bowl. It was another Super Bowl disappointment for Shanahan as he could not get it done for the third time to go with blowing a double digit lead the last time they met KC in the Super Bowl and quite possibly the worst coaching job in Super Bowl history in blowing a 4 TD lead as OC for Atlanta versus the Patriots.
We at SportsCapPro spent many hours studying the side, total and props for the Super Bowl and settled on just 4 plays. We passed on the side believing the line of SF -2 offered little value in what we believed was a coin flip contest that would very likely be settled by a field goal and won by whoever had the ball last. On one hand we liked SF as the more talented side but, on the other side, there was Patrick Mahomes. We also thought the total of 47.5 was fair but ultimately decided on a 1* play to the UNDER. The feeling was SF would try to control the ball on the ground with McCaffery to eat the clock and keep Mahomes on the sideline. KC can be run on, particularly when missing two starting D-Lineman. When the Chiefs had the ball we looked for some long, sustained clock eating drives mixing Pacheco runs with a short passing game that KC has come to rely on this year. While the game did stay Under, even with OT, there was definitely some luck involved with two critical red zone fumbles that easily could have added 10-14 points to the total….but we will take it. As is often the case with Super Bowl betting the money making value is found in the Prop Market. The SportsCapPro philosophy has always been to select the very strongest rated plays and bet only those for more money, or units. There is nothing worse than hitting your 4 strongest plays only to have the profit whittled down by losing 3 other lesser rated plays. With hundreds of prop options offered now it can be difficult to have the discipline to limit the number of wagers. Let me share a little related side story. When I was in college in the early 80’s, and starting to bet games more seriously, and losing of course, I was fortunate enough to befriend a professional bettor that hung out at one of the local bars I frequented. He was an older guy, probably 40 (it sounds ridiculous to me now to think 40 is older), and the only bettor I knew that actually won. I would sit next to him on a college football Saturday rooting for my dozen $50 bets, most of which would lose, while he was sitting there rooting for his three $500 bets, most of which would win. I finally ask him how he could possibly have liked only 3 games out of the 75 on the board? He said he LIKED about 15 of them but only LOVED the 3 he played. He went on to explain that there are two types of sports bettors; ACTION betters and PROFESSIONAL bettors. The Action bettor will bet every game he has a lean on, or that happens to be on TV, or that involves his favorite team and he will have a zero chance of winning over time because, even if he has some skill, the 10% juice will destroy him. The Professional bettor cares about only one thing: SHOWING PROFIT. What games have a high enough EV (Expected Value) to flip the odds in favor of the player? When those games are identified they are the only ones you play. Well he didn’t have to tell me twice considering I was paying the bookie every Tuesday and he was collecting. That day a new philosophy was born that I still carry with me today at SportsCapPro. Hopefully that advice being passed forward will be helpful to some of you. OK, back to the Super Bowl and the Props we landed on with explanations. These prop bets went 3-0 at +10 Units:
3* (VERY STRONG) KC: Patrick Mahomes OVER 25.5 Rushing Yards (-120) – Mahomes has had 6 rushes in each of the last 2 playoff games and we expect he will have closer to 8-10 in the Super Bowl. The 49ers will likely have a 4 man rush on the majority of plays so they can double Kelce and sometimes Rice as well. This will leave holes and open rush lanes that Mahomes will exploit. He will also have ample opportunities to scramble outside the pocket on broken plays and that is when he is most dangerous. He has proven time and again, particularly in big games, that he is also very capable of breaking a long one which gives him the opportunity to cover this number on a single play. Beyond that we believe Andy Reid will have a number of designed runs the Chiefs have not shown that are specific to beating certain 49er defensive sets. With so many avenues to success this is our second highest rated prop which makes it a “3* VERY STRONG” play.
3* (VERY STRONG) SF: Jauan Jennings OVER 15.5 Receiving Yards (-115) – It can be difficult betting 49er receiving props because Purdy spreads the ball around and any of McCaffrey, Kittle, Deebo or Aiyuk can go off, or receive fewer targets, in any given game. In this matchup we dug deep into the lesser known receivers due to the Chiefs strong corner play and assuming the bigger names would be doubled, or at least shaded, on most snaps. This Jennings line stands out as a full 7.5 yards too low by our numbers. In 3 of his last 4 games Jennings has had receiving yards of 61, 25 and 44 yards with long receptions of 21, 22 and 18. This tells us Mahomes has been looking for him down the field and even a single catch has a very good chance of surpassing this total; and we have him getting 2.2 receptions. This is our third highest rated prop play on the board which makes it a “3* VERY STRONG” play.
4* (ELITE) SF: Christian McCaffrey OVER 35.5 Receiving Yards (-120) – This is just an outstanding matchup for McCaffrey out of the backfield against the Chiefs and Spagnola’s blitz packages which is why it is only our 6th 4* ELITE release over the entire NFL season. These releases are 4-1 heading into the Super Bowl. The 49ers strategy in this game will be to get the ball in their best players hands early and often in every way possible. That includes swing passes, screen passes and short passes out of the slot to an outstanding open field runner who breaks tackles for fun. In the last 5 games McCaffrey has 26 receptions from 37 targets for an amazing 179 yards. He also has the ability to break loose on any given reception and cover this number in one catch. We also recommend using escalators up to 50 yards for partial units. We would not be surprised if this number is covered by halftime. For all of these reasons this is our TOP RATED prop so play McCaffrey OVER 35.5 receiving yards for a “4* ELITE” recommendation.
This has been an exceptional football season at SportsCapPro where we hit 59% in the NFL on 100 total plays and 57% in college on 120 total plays. Our subscribers had a very profitable year and we want to thank each and every one of you for trusting us with your hard earned money. We know every year will not be this strong but we promise to keep putting in the work with our full concentration now on the hoops leading up to March Madness!