We could not get over the hump on Friday settling for a SPLIT on our four 2* Selections. The Bradley Braves moved on to the next round getting by Murray St 70-62 and the Illinois St/Belmont contest stayed well UNDER. But Bowling Green lost by 1, when the refs made a terrible foul call with 3 seconds remaining, thus handing W. Michigan the gift victory, and somebody made up a NO DEFENSE ALLOWED rule in the Pudue/Illinois matchup as that battle went Over the total. With Zero Units added on Friday, our rolling 12 day record remains Very Solid at 36-12 for PLUS 65 UNITS. With a big Saturday card we will look to get back on the winning track.
2* STRONG – Bradley -4.5 (70-62) WIN
2* STRONG – Illinois St/Belmont UNDER 152 (76-67) WIN
2* STRONG – Bowling Green -3.5 (63-64) LOSS
2* STRONG – Purdue/Illinois UNDER 159.5 (80-88) LOSS
WRITEUP: 3-7-27: 2* STRONG – Illinois St/Belmont UNDER 152: There has been an odd quirk in recent years at the MVC tournament where roughly 65% of the games have gone UNDER. This trend continued yesterday with 3 of 4 landing Under. While both Illinois St (10-10) and Belmont (13-7) have had their share of Overs in conference play, they have both trended Under lately. Belmont has gone Under in its last 3, and 4 of 5. Illinois St has gone Under in its last 2 versus Missouri St and Evansville, limiting those squads to 40% Field Goal Percentage and 24% from deep.The Redbirds have decided to slow the pace and emphasize the stop end. Apparently the oddsmakers have realized these trends as well with the posted O/U number dropping from 159.5 to 152. The line drop will not get us off the game, but will drop the UNIT play from 4* ELITE to 2* STRONG.
WRITEUP: 3-7-25: 2* STRONG – BRADLEY -4.5: Tonight the Bradley Braves (15-5) take on the Murray St Racers (9-11) in a Missouri Valley conference quarterfinal matchup. The Braves received a BYE so they are coming in fresh, whereas Murray St played yesterday in an easy win over cold shooting Evansville. The Braves finished the regular season strong going 6-1 straight up, and 5-2 ATS, in their last 7 contests behind a Super Efficient offense (ranked 6th nationally) and Excellent 3 point shooting (#1 nationally at 40.9%). Bradley was also a very solid 8-3 on the Road this season. On the flip side the Racers struggle offensively at times ranking a lowly 247th nationally in Effective Field Goal Percentage while hitting just 34% from 3 point range. These teams met twice during the regular season with Bradley winning 85-83 at Home and 74-61 on the Road. The Braves enter this contest with rest and in very sharp current form. They are much better on offense than the Racers and should have no trouble moving on to the next round.