We finished off Day 1 of March Madness in style by hitting our TOP 2 Releases as both Drake and McNeese WON OUTRIGHT as UNDERDOGS! It’s always nice when the hard work pays off as our 4* ELITE selection Drake Bulldogs led from start to finish building a 7 point halftime lead, increasing that lead to 15 in the second half and posting a 67-57 victory. It would not surprise to see this scrappy bunch give Texas Tech all they want on Saturday. With our 3* VERY STRONG release on McNeese the cover was never in doubt (led 31-13 at the half) but the Cowboys had to withstand a furious Tiger 2nd half rally to barely hold on for the outright win 69-67. We went just 1-2 on our 2* STRONG plays with St John’s overcoming a slow start to CRUSH Omaha and both High Point and Yale coming up short. Overall we’ll take it as adding 4 Units brings our rolling 25 Day record to 63-36 for PLUS 87 UNITS. We have already uncovered several high EV (Expected Value) plays for NCAA Day 2 on Friday so let’s keep it rolling!
4* ELITE – DRAKE +6.5 (67-57) WIN
3* VERY STRONG – McNeese +7.5 (69-67) WIN
2* STRONG – St John’s -18.5 (83-53) WIN
2* STRONG – High Point +7.5 (63-75) LOSS
2* STRONG – Yale +7.5 (71-80) LOSS
Writeup: 3-20-25: 4* ELITE – DRAKE +6.5: Tonight we have a West Regional battle with the MVC Champion Drake Bulldogs taking on the Missouri Tigers of the SEC. This is our BEST BET on the Thursday card as the game is simply mispriced. Missouri comes limping into this contest having won just 1 of their last 5, while giving up a pitiful 91 ppg. The Tigers rank 71st nationally in Defensive Efficiency so they basically just use their fast paced offense in an attempt to out score their opponent. This strategy could be a death knell against the methodical Bulldogs who run a patient, ball screening offense and nearly always control the pace. It is easy to see Missouri becoming frustrated here which could lead to turnovers when trying to force the action. This Drake squad is no joke as their 30-3 overall record indicates. They are led on offense by star guard Bennett Stirtz who averages 19.1 ppg, while dishing out 5.7 assists. Stirtz is surrounded by other shooters which makes them very difficult to defend. But DEFENSE is Drake’s calling card as they Rank #1 nationally in Scoring D, giving up a paltry 58.4 ppg, and #1 in Steal Rate at 14.6%. The Bulldogs are also 9-1 on the road so they will be unfazed by this neutral setting and the heavily partisan Tiger crowd. Look for Drake to keep this one close all the way with a very good chance of pulling the outright upset.
Writeup: 3-20-25: 3* VERY STRONG – McNeese +7.5: This afternoon we have a Midwest Region contest between the Clemson Tigers and Southland Conference Champ McNeese (19-1) that may very well end up closer than the Oddsmakers think. While the Tigers certainly have the stronger strength of schedule, they will have to compete today without their star guard, and best player, Dillon Hunter who is out injured. Hunter averaged 16.4 points, 3 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game in 33.4 minutes and will be sorely missed against the Pressure Defense employed by McNeese. In the NCAA Tournament Guard Play is CRITICAL, and MAGNIFIED, and this is a Devastating Loss for Missouri. On the other hand, we have a veteran laden Cowboys squad that rolled through the Southland this season behind a balanced attack that features 4 double digit scorers. They also played Alabama and Mississippi St tough in the non-conference schedule so they will not be intimidated by Clemson. This is the 2nd consecutive season McNeese has qualified for the Big Dance so they will know what to expect and should be primed for a top notch effort here. This is also a 5 seed taking on a 12 seed and we have seen some crazy outcomes in these battles in the past. The Tigers overall size and athleticism may be enough to get them through, but not without a bitter fight from the underdog Cowboys from start to finish!