We got back on the PLUS Side Saturday picking up 1 Unit but it was still a frustrating day, and still a frustrating tournament, as we cannot seem to get over the hump. Even many of the wins have not come without some trepidation late as our 4* Elite Winner on Houston saw the Cougars blow a 12 point lead in the last 2:45 and have to hold on for dear life at the buzzer. It was much the same with our 3* Very Strong Winner on BYU as they dominated throughout, held a 9 point lead with 1:47 remaining, yet barely escaped with a 2 point victory. We had a 3* Very Strong loser on Drake that was the most frustrating of all as their coach Ben McCollum, generally considered a damn good coach, had No Answer for Texas Tech’s strategy of pounding the ball inside on every possession. No double teams, no help, no nothing in a pitiful display of in-game coaching adjustments…..or lack thereof. Our other 3* Very Strong loser came about as McNeese forgot to set their alarm clocks, apparently thinking the game started at 1:25 instead of 12:10, as they scored a whopping 20 points in the first 20 minutes leading to a 38-20 halftime deficit…..Game Over. Adding 1 Unit brings our rolling 27 Day record to 66-41 for PLUS 82 UNITS. Our impressive run has waned a bit of late, but we have worked hard on the Sunday card and are looking forward to a BIG DAY!
4* ELITE – Houston ML -205 (81-76) WIN
3* VERY STRONG – BYU +1.5 (91-89) WIN
3* VERY STRONG – Drake +6.5 (64-77) LOSS
3* VERY STRONG – McNeese +7.5 (67-76) LOSS
3* VERY STRONG – BYU +1.5: Tonight we have an East Region contest between the BYU Cougars and the Wisconsin Badgers in a matchup that should see the 3’s flying as both teams like to chuck it up from deep. The difference is the Cougars rank 31st nationally in 3 point shooting percentage while BYU is down in the 121st spot. The 3 ball accounts for 48% of BYU’s offense and they attempt the 17th most deep shots per game in the country. We mention this as a critical factor in the handicap because Wisconsin ranks 12th in the Big 10 in 3 Point Percentage Defense. So we have one side that shoots from deep often, and is good at it, versus another side that is poor at defending it. In a battle of fairly equal teams this discrepancy may very likely decide the outcome. The Badgers enter this game just 2-4 ATS in their last 6, while BYU enters winning 9 of their last 10 and sporting a 9-2 ATS record over their last 11. The Cougars are deep and talented, and enter this one on a HEATER, and we see them marching on to the Sweet 16.
4* ELITE – Houston ML -205 (Fanduel): We rarely get involved with higher Money Lines but, Value is Value, and our numbers put this at -245. Here we have a Midwest Region battle between #1 SEED Houston and #8 Seed Gonzaga. The oddsmakers have lowered this line based on Gonzaga’s dismantling of lousy Georgia and we will be happy to take advantage. The Cougars are excellent yet again behind a suffocating DEFENSE that allows a mere 57.9 points per game, with a much better offense than past editions that could not reach the mountain top. Future Hall of Fame coach Kelvin Sampson has said this is the best team he has had at Houston and we believe him. Gonzaga, on the other hand, brings a lesser version to the Big Dance than they have in the recent past. Look for the Cougar D to swarm and frustrate the Gonzaga guards as they do not face this kind of pressure in the West Coast conference. We lay the lumber with confidence in this matchup as the Cougars roll into the Sweet 16!