We split our key 4* Releases on Sunday with Alabama being too much for St Mary’s and Florida getting very lucky to escape a game effort by Connecticut. The Crimson Tide had too many athletes for the Gaels and the Gators had very concerning Defensive Lapses for a second straight game. Our 2* release on Maryland never had a chance as the Terps were bailed out on a Buzzer Beater by Derik Queen. We underestimated the Rams and it cost us. It will be interesting to see what transpires in the Florida-Maryland matchup as neither squad was impressive. Our 2* Loss on Oregon was a good handicap, with an unlucky result, in one of the Worst Bad Beats of the season. With just 5 seconds remaining the Ducks were down 82-81 getting 3.5 points. Arizona makes 2 free throws to extend the lead to 84-81; with the Gators still covering and with possession. More often than not, Oregon would come down and pop a 3 at the buzzer and it’s game over or OT. Unfortunately Arizona decides to foul (smart play). With 2 seconds left Jackson Shelstad makes the first free throw and misses the second on purpose…..and of course Oregon fouls again, even with a zero chance to win now. With the pressure off, Caleb Love sinks 2 meaningless free throws for the 87-83 final. That has been our luck several times in the past few days. Losing 4 Units brings our rolling 28 day record to 67-44 for PLUS 78 UNITS.
4* ELITE – Alabama ML -205 (80-66) WIN
4* ELITE – Florida -9.5 (77-75) Loss
2* STRONG – Maryland -7.5 (72-71) Loss
2* STRONG – Oregon +3.5 (87-83) Loss
4* ELITE – Alabama ML -230 (Fanduel): Just like our 4* Win on Florida yesterday, Value is Value. While we seldom play higher lines, our numbers have the Tide substantially undervalued here on the Money Line as we have it at -280. Today we have a gross contrast in styles as St Mary’s will want to slow the pace and Bama will want to run. The Tide have scored 90+ points 19 times this season and the Gaels will not be able to hold them in check over 40 minutes; particularly in a hurry up affair with their thin bench. St Mary’s ranks 360th nationally in BENCH MINUTES and that will come back to bite them here. The Gaels are severely overrated as their best win all year, other than Gonzaga, is a victory over middling Big 10 entry Nebraska. And they could have very easily lost to Vandy in their last game. Getting Center Grant Nelson back is a big boost for Alabama as the Gaels are generally strong on the boards. This one may be close for a while but we see the pace, balanced scoring and athleticism of Bama sending them on to the Sweet 16.