Thursday was one of those days in Baseball Betting that just leaves you shaking your head as two key games lost in Extra Innings and a pitcher who had been unhittable over his last 4 starts got shelled. For the second time in the last 10 days what could easily have been a huge 4-1 day turned into a disaster due to a couple of key plays going the wrong way. Go figure. Our 3* Atlanta First 5 play started very well as the Braves plated 2 runs in the top of the 1st Inning but then budding star AJ Smith-Shawver proceeded to give up 7 runs in the first 3 innings to the very Nationals team he shutout over 6 innings just a week before. Smith-Shawver had given up 1 run over his previous 4 starts, covering 19.2 innings, so we are not sure how anyone could have seen this coming. Our 3* VERY STRONG release on Atlanta Full Game was tied 7-7 through 9 innings. The Braves had men at 1st and 3rd with 1 out before Eli White grounded into an inning ending double play. Braves reliever Dylan Lee then proceeded to spit it up in the bottom of the 10th for an 8-7 Nationals win. Our 2* STRONG play on San Diego continued the theme of the day as the Padres lost 7-6 in 11 innings. The Padres took a 1 run lead in both the 10th and 11th innings but reliever Suarez (2.70 ERA) gave up a run to tie in the 10th and then Estrada (2.86 ERA) proceeded to give up 2 more runs in the 11th and that was the ballgame. Two very solid relievers both faltered at crunch time sending the reeling Padres to their 6th straight defeat. Thankfully the world returned to normalcy as our 2* STRONG Phillies completed their SWEEP of the Rockies 2-0 and our 1* NBA selection on Minnesota/OKC OVER was a Winner with the Thunder rolling 118-103. The last 10 days in MLB have been extremely frustrating with numerous toss up outcomes resulting in tough beats, or downright BAD BEATS, causing a drastic swing in Units gained/lost. These things have a way of evening out over a long season so we are hoping some breaks begin going our way. Dropping 8.21 Units brings our rolling 87 day record to 127-109 for Plus 71.91 Units.
3* VERY STRONG – (MLB) Atlanta -150: This one is all about the pitching as these teams just met on May 15th with Atlanta’s ace Smith-Shawver facing off against Trevor Williams in a Braves 5-2 victory. We are not sure what has changed in a week? In that game Smith-Shawver threw 6 shutout innings while Williams gave up 5 hits and 3 earned runs in 4.1 innings. In his last 4 starts Smith-Shawver has allowed 1 earned run in 19.2 innings while Williams has 26 hits and 16 earned runs in his last 21 innings. No choice but to back the red hot Smith-Shawver here.
3* STRONG – (MLB) Atlanta (First 5) -147: See Above
2* STRONG – (MLB) San Diego -115: If not now, WHEN? The Padres are in a terrible slump having lost 5 straight and being thoroughly shellacked yesterday 14-1 by the Blue Jays. It’s time for one of the best teams in MLB to get back on track and facing Toronto starter Bowden Francis should be just what the Doctor ordered. Francis has been awful and carries a 6.75 ERA in Rogers Centre. The Padres Kolek is no great shakes but after getting absolutely embarrassed Wednesday the Padres say “enough is enough” this afternoon.
2* STRONG – Phillies -1.5 Runs -200: Another blowout loss for the Rockies yesterday and now they throw another terrible starter in Marquez to the wolves this afternoon. This Phillies team is absolutely enjoying hitting in the thin mountain air and today should be no different. Marquez has an 8.78 ERA vs this Phillies lineup while the Rockies have lost 5 of his last 6 starts by 3 runs or more and are 2-12 on Run Line in their last 14 HOME games. SWEEP!.
3* VERY STRONG – (MLB) Atlanta -150 (7-8 – 10 Innings) LOSS
3* VERY STRONG – (MLB) Atlanta (1st 5 Innings) -147 (5-7) LOSS
2* STRONG – (MLB) Phillies (2-0) WIN
2* STRONG – (MLB) San Diego -115 (6-7 – 11 Innings) LOSS
1* SOLID – (NBA) Minnesota/OKC OVER 216.5 (118-103) WIN