Our 3* VERY STRONG release on the Indiana Team Total OVER was looking good at the half with the Pacers putting up 58 points, but they followed that up with a putrid 22 in the 3rd and an even worse 20 in the 4th to come up short in a 106-100 Knicks comeback victory. The main cogs did their part as Haliburton, Siakam and Turner shot 20-41 from the field but the usually reliable role players offered next to nothing in support. Inexplicably the Pacers got away from their frenetic pace in the 2nd half and began playing “not to lose” rather than attempting to bury the Knicks; particularly in the 4th quarter. The final straw was Indiana’s inability to hit from deep as they made just 5 of 30 attempts. It is rare to see Indy coach Rick Carlisle exercise poor game management but, much to our chagrin, that is exactly what happened. This is a classic example of a correct handicap with an incorrect result, but it happens. Dropping 3 Units brings our rolling 90 day record to 127-115 for Plus 55.69 Units.
3* VERY STRONG – (NBA Team Total) Indiana OVER 112
It is very tempting to back Indiana tonight as they have appeared to be the better team, and are at HOME, but Vegas is welcoming that action by putting a -1.5 line out there and we have seen this show before! The Knicks are talented, and playing for their season, so we believe the better strategy is simply backing the Pacers to push the pace and use their excellent depth (play 9 guys serious minutes) and balance to put up a big number versus a very mediocre NY Defense. Indiana is averaging 119 PPG in the playoffs with seemingly a different player carrying the load in every contest. They lead the NBA in Assist/Turnover which makes them a very difficult team to defend. Indiana has scored 114+ points in 10 of 12 playoff games and we like that trend to continue in what should be an exciting, higher scoring matchup.
3* VERY STRONG – (NBA Team Total) Indiana OVER 112 (100) LOSS