We found so much VALUE in our Top 2 plays that we decided to “not muddy the waters” by adding any additional selections, and that strategy was rewarded with a 2-0 SWEEP. Our 4* ELITE release on Houston/Baltimore OVER was a “Rocking Chair” as the teams combined for 10 runs through 5 innings in an eventual 10-7 Astros victory. As expected (see Write-Up) both starting pitchers continued their struggles. The Orioles Cade Povich lasted 4.2 innings while allowing 4 runs on 4 hits. In his first start since being on the shelf for a month, the Astros Lance McCullers coughed up 3 runs on 4 hits in just 4 innings. The relievers spit up another 8 runs as the “Slugfest” we expected came to pass. Our other 4* ELITE selection on St Louis/Tampa Bay OVER also went true to form in a 10-6 Rays win. The teams combined for 5 Home Runs, and 9 total runs through 6 innings, to get us home. For St Louis it was Miles Mikolas continuing his inexplicable ineptitude on the Road by surrendering 4 runs on an unbelievable 10 HITS over just 2.2 innings. Mikolas entered this contest having allowed 24 runs in 17 innings in his last 4 road starts. Adrian Houser had a decent outing for the Rays allowing 4 runs on 6 hits over 6.1 innings which was all the Rays needed. Adding 8 Units brings our rolling 177 day record to 255-186 for +286.74 Units.
8-22-25 4* ELITE – (MLB) Houston/Baltimore OVER 9.5 –110 (10-7) WIN
8-22-25 4* ELITE – (MLB) St Louis/Tampa Bay OVER 8.5 (10-6) WIN
8-22-25 4* ELITE – (MLB) St Louis/Tampa Bay OVER 8.5 -118
Considering the starting pitching matchup we have here, our numbers have this posted Total as being a FULL RUN short which elevates this play to the 4* ELITE level. Cardinals pitcher Miles Mikolas possesses some of the most stark Home/Road splits you will ever see, and we will take full advantage, as it appears the oddsmakers have set this number without taking that important factor into account. Over his last 4 Road Starts, Mikolas has tossed 17 innings and allowed an absurd 24 runs on 28 hits. He simply cannot get anyone out away from Busch Stadium, for whatever reason. On the other side, Tampa Bay is likely feeling as though they were “sold a bill of goods” when picking up Adrian Houser from the White Sox as the good form he displayed earlier in the season is long gone. Over his last 5 starts (26.2 innings) Houser has been knocked around for 15 runs on 26 hits with no end in sight. While neither of these teams are offensive juggernauts, we see balls flying all over the park tonight in Tampa’s temporary home that has been a hitters paradise all season. It is possible either team could cover this number by themselves considering the Road Horrors we see from Mikolas and the Bad Current Form from Houser.
8-22-25 4* ELITE – (MLB) Houston/Baltimore OVER 9.5
Just as with the St Louis/Tampa Bay contest above, our numbers again have this posted Total a Full Run short which elevates this play to the 4* ELITE level. For Houston it will be Lance McCullers making his first start since July 19th and Astros fans can only hope he comes back in better form than he has shown previously. McCullers enters this matchup with an unsightly 6.90 ERA and that number doesn’t figure to improve tonight versus the hard hitting Orioles lineup. Once upon a time McCullers had dominant stuff but he appears to really be up against it tonight. On the season Baltimore starter Cade Povich (4.98 ERA) has shown some promise but he has hit the wall lately. Over his last 3 starts (16.2 innings), since being recalled from AAA, Povich has struggled with command while allowing 8 Runs on 13 Hits with 7 Walks. The Astros will make him throw strikes and, when he does, they will pounce. We do not see either of these struggling starters making it to the 5th inning which brings the opportunity to tack on more runs versus the mediocre middle relievers into play. This matchup sets up as a True Slugfest with strong offense on both sides carrying the day.