In the final weeks of the MLB season we will be picking our spots and will likely be offering fewer selections. With younger players up from AAA (particularly pitchers) prevalent in many lineups there are simply fewer known data points we can count on with confidence. With that said, we went 2-0 on Tuesday led by our 4* ELITE release on the Phillies as they put a beat down on the sinking Mets 9-3. Ranger Suarez was excellent for the Phils as he tossed 6 shutout innings allowing just 1 hit. Kyle Schwarber hit his 50th Homer for the Phillies. For the Mets it was Sean Manaea continuing his late season tailspin as he was pounded for 4 runs on 5 hits over 5 innings. Manaea was followed by Justin Hagenman who proceeded to spit up 5 more runs and that was that. If the Mets do not figure it out soon they will be on the outside looking come playoff time. Our 3* VERY STRONG selection on Boston also got there as first time starter Connelly Early threw 5 shutout innings in a 6-0 Red Sox victory over the Athletics. Early had huge strikeout numbers in AA and AAA this season and his stuff also played well in the Bigs as he fanned 11 A’s batters. This outing will almost surely buy Early another start as the Sox try to chase down the Blue Jays and Yankees in the AL East. Adding 7 Units brings our rolling 195 day record to 298-204 for Plus 366.04 Units.
9-9-25 4* ELITE – (MLB) Phillies -130 (9-3) WIN
9-9-25 3* VERY STRONG – Red Sox -105 (6-0) WIN
9-9-25 4* ELITE – (MLB) Phillies -130
The oddsmakers must have had Bloody Mary’s for breakfast when they made this line (-130) as our numbers have the matchup at Phillies -161 which elevates this play to the 4* ELITE level. Not only are the Phillies at HOME, with a huge starting pitching edge, but they are facing off against a Mets squad that is in free fall having lost 3 straight. NY starter Sean Manaea has been lousy since August began but he has been particularly bad of late, allowing 24 runs on 36 hits over 27.2 innings over his last 6 starts. He held up OK when battling the Phillies at HOME on August 26th, lasting 4.2 innings and giving up 2 runs on 6 hits, but we see things going much worse tonight on the ROAD. Philadelphia starter Ranger Suarez has rebounded nicely from a couple of bumpy outings. Over his last 4 starts Suarez has limited the opposition to just 3 runs on 23 hits in 24.2 innings and we do not see the slumping NY lineup doing much of anything against him in this spot. Philadelphia is only 3 games behind the Brewers for the TOP SEED in the NL so we should get their best effort this evening. This Mets squad seems to be pressing, with the Reds and Giants nipping at their heels for the final Wild Card spot, and knowing Manaea is on the bump versus the Phillies powerful lineup will certainly not help to dissuade that. The Phillies simply hold EVERY ADVANTAGE in this matchup and we expect them to win going away.
9-9-25 3* VERY STRONG – (MLB) Red Sox -105
The oddsmakers are giving No Respect to Boston’s first time starter Connelly Early, even though he has pitched very well all season in AA and AAA. Early tossed 71.2 innings in AA going 7-2 with a 2.51 ERA while striking out an excellent 96 batters. And his AAA numbers are equally impressive with a 3-1 record, a 3.32 ERA and 36 strikeouts in 28.2 innings. This kid obviously has electric strikeout stuff and there is no reason he cannot hold the Athletics in check for a good 5 innings and let the bullpen take over. On the other side, Athletics starter Jeffrey Springs has really struggled of late and will be up against here trying to hold down the hot Red Sox lineup. Over his last 3 starts Springs has given up 16 runs on 29 hits over 25 innings. The A’s hitters have never seen Early, and we expect his stuff will carry to the Big League level, while the Boston hitters rake versus the inconsistent Springs in a contest that carries much more importance for the Red Sox.
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