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NBA April 22, 2021

2* DALLAS -3 (-110) Lakers

The Mavericks started slow this season but have come on since February behind the outstanding play of Luka Doncic. They now find themselves just a half game back of Portland for the all important 6th seed which would allow them to avoid the play-in game. They also sit only 3.5 games behind the Lakers which gives them plenty of motivation to cut into that lead at home tonight while LeBron continues to nurse his high ankle sprain. The Lakers are expected to get Anthony Davis back tonight but that may actually play in the Maverick’s favor by keeping this line short. Between the rust, and Davis likely playing only 15-20 minutes in his first game back, I expect his presence to have limited effect on the outcome. I trust Doncic to be there at crunch time and to lead the Mavs to a very important victory over the Lakers in a critical game for playoff seeding. Play Dallas to cover -3 at home on a strong 2* selection. 

COLLEGE BASKETBALL April 5, 2021

4* BAYLOR +5 Gonzaga (-110)

2* BAYLOR Money Line (+188)

In a very rare Maximum Bet 4* selection I believe the oddsmakers have the wrong team favored tonight in the NCAA Championship game. Gonzaga reached this game by doing what they have done all season which is simply use better basketball players to out score mediocre opposition. They rolled through an extremely weak conference, toppled very average squads in Oklahoma, Creighton and USC without resistance, and then had to hold on for dear life against a very hot and offensively talented UCLA team that they simply could not stop. Therein lies the edge in this matchup. When facing an athletic team with multiple scorers the Gonzaga defense is a paper tiger. Baylor is the best 3 point shooting team in the nation and gets consistent production from all five spots on the court. With Butler, Mitchell and Teague equally adept offensively Gonzaga will have to pick their poison and Jalen Suggs can’t guard them all! I believe Baylor will score early and often and easily reach 80+ points. When Gonzaga has the ball they will face a Baylor team comprised of stout, physical, defense-first athletes who will not be intimidated in the least and who are going to make life very uncomfortable for the likes of Kispert and Timme who will be doubled and harassed for 40 minutes. Suggs will likely get his because he is just that good but, with Kispert and Timme largely held in check, the Bears will be more than happy to take their chances that Ayayi and Nembhard cannot do enough to beat them. Unless Butler, Mitchell and Teague all have off nights, Baylor is simply too versatile on offense and too strong on defense for Gonzaga to keep up for 40 minutes. Play Baylor +5 on a very rare Maximum Bet 4* selection. Also play Baylor Money Line +188 on a strong 2* selection.      

COLLEGE FOOTBALL January 11, 2021

4* PROP BET: DeVonta Smith (Alabama) OVER 8.5 Receptions (-115)

Maximum Bet 4* selections are very rare and this is the first one we have ever released on a Prop bet. But in this game, with this special receiver, against this pass defense it is warranted. Barring injury I honestly believe this play could cover by halftime and I would feel comfortable playing it up to 10. Let’s start here. Indiana’s Michael Penix carved up the Buckeye secondary to the tune of 491 yards and no sane person would ever confuse Penix and the Hoosier offense with Mac Jones and this Bama freight train. The Ohio State defensive braintrust is very aware that their secondary ranks 35th in the nation in “pass coverage” and 84th in “opponents big play passing” (per Pro Football Focus) so their strategy will be to keep the Bama receivers in front of them at all cost. This plays right into our hands as the Tide OC will be more than happy to feed Smith the ball on slants, short curls and bubble screens at every opportunity hoping to force the safeties up. I could give you 10 more reasons why this selection is elite but the simple fact is DeVonta Smith cannot be covered by any linebacker, corner of safety at the college level. Nick Saban is not going for his 6th championship in 12 years by accident and he knows Smith is the best player on the field. Saban will make certain he is targeted early and often which should result in DeVonta sailing past the listed total of 8.5 receptions. Play PROP DeVonta Smith to go OVER 8.5 receptions on a very rare Maximum Bet 4* selection.       

PGA GOLF April 24,2021

Zurich Classic

2* MATCHUP: Sheffler/Watson (-125) over Rose/Stenson

The Zurich Classic is the only PGA Tour event where 2-man teams compete. On Thursday and Saturday they play “4 BALL” which means each team member plays their own ball and the lowest score from either team member is counted on each hole. On Friday and Sunday they play “Alternate Shot” which means one team member hits the Drive, the other team member hits the second shot, and so on. Today we are back to “4 BALL” where Scotty Sheffler and Bubba Watson shot an 8 under par 64 on Thursday. While Sheffler/Watson have played very solid golf the first 2 days this is more of a play against Henrik Stenson who has missed the cut in 4 of 5 tournaments since March 4th. Considering Stenson’s poor current form I give the Sheffler/Watson team a decided advantage in today’s 3rd round. I would make the line -150 in this matchup so there is clear value to be had at -125. Play Sheffler/Watson -125 on a strong 2* selection.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL January 11, 2021

3* ALABAMA -8.5 Ohio St (-110)

At first blush this seems like a ton of points to be giving a storied program like Ohio St in a Championship game; particularly when they are coming off the complete annihilation of a very good Clemson squad. But when digging deeper into the matchup I believe this line is high for a number of legitimate reasons. The most glaring of which is the well designed and unstoppable Crimson Tide passing game, led by Heisman favorites Mac Jones and DeVonta Smith, versus a very suspect Ohio St. secondary that was torched for 491 yards by none other than Indiana’s Michael Penix. Per Pro Football Focus the Buckeye secondary ranks 35th in “pass coverage” and 84th in “opponent big play passing” which hardly bodes well when facing this offensive machine. The Buckeye defense is up against it here. Their only chance of slowing down Bama’s formidable aerial attack is to play the safeties deep which opens up all kinds of short routes for the elusive and unguardable Smith, Metchie and possibly even Waddle who is expected to be available for a limited number of snaps. This defensive strategy also limits the help available when attempting to stop the powerful Najee Harris running behind an excellent offensive line  anchored by seniors Leatherwood, Brown and Dickerson. This unit just received the Joe Moore Award as the “Most Outstanding Offensive Line Unit in College Football” and they deserve it. The Ohio St. defense is solid but no defense has been able to derail this versatile offensive freight train all season and, when all is said and done, this Bucks D is destined to be added to the scrap heap like all the others. There are also issues when the Buckeyes have the ball. While their numbers are impressive, a closer look unmasks the fact that these numbers have been amassed against the likes of Northwestern, Michigan St, Indiana, Nebraska and Rutgers….hardly the Murderers Row of college football. In addition star QB Justin Fields took a cheap shot to the ribs versus Clemson which, at the very least, should affect his mobility in this contest. With Fields scrambling ability limited the Buckeye offense essentially becomes a 2 trick pony with stud RB Sermon and big play threat WR Olave being the only remaining legitimate  standouts. While this edition of the Alabama defense is not as dominant as past units they are stout up front and sound enough in the back. I look for the Tide to stack the box against Sermon, double Olave on the outside and force a less than 100% Fields to beat them from the pocket. Good luck with that as no Buckeye receiving option outside of Olave is cause for concern. The most likely scenario as to how this battle unfolds finds the Tide up 10-14 points by the end of the first quarter. This is a nightmare for Ohio St as the ability of Sermon to control the clock and the game on the ground becomes severely compromised. This also allows the Alabama pass rushers to pin their ears back and come after Fields knowing his normal stellar escapability is likely to be somewhat compromised by the rib injury. All things considered I see no path available where this Buckeye offense can keep pace with one of the greatest offensive juggernauts I have seen in college football in the last 40 years for a full 40 minutes, especially with Fields at less than 100%. Throw in the big game experience of Nick Saban for good measure and it looks like the coach secures his 6th National Championship in the last 12 years by a comfortable margin. Play ALABAMA to cover -8.5 on a very strong 3* selection.   

NFL

February 7, 2021 – Super Bowl

2* TAMPA BAY Money Line +145 Chiefs

While I believe Tampa Bay has a number of advantages in this contest, in addition to playing on their home field, the presence of Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill on the other sideline limits this to a 2* selection, even though my numbers make the Bucs a small favorite. This game will be decided in the trenches where the ferocious Buccaneer front 7 will attempt to keep Mahomes on the run for 60 minutes. Considering the KC offensive line was already banged up entering the Buffalo game, and has now lost stalwart All Pro left tackle Eric Fisher, this could be a long and uncomfortable evening for the Chiefs QB. Kelce and Hill will no doubt get their catches, because they are just that damn good, but I do not see them dominating the game in the manner we have become accustomed to seeing. This TB secondary is solid and will benefit from having seen the Chiefs offense earlier in the season. With Mahomes under constant pressure the Buccaneer defense will do enough to give Tom Brady every opportunity to secure his 7th Super Bowl ring. As we have seen for many years now Brady is a master at taking what a defense gives him and executing game plans to perfection. His command of the offense and rapport with his new top shelf receiving corps progressed as the season wore on to the point where they are now a well oiled machine. The running game has also come together led by Fournette and Jones and I believe they will be the key here, just as they have been throughout the playoffs. Brady and the Tampa offensive braintrust will successfully use their strong running game, along with a controlled passing game, to bleed the clock and keep the electric Mahomes on the sideline. With the Buccaneer defense being the most dominant unit on the field, and with Brady using his big game experience to complete 3rd down passes and keep the chains moving, I believe the Chiefs come up short and the Lombardi Trophy finds a new home in Florida. With the consensus point spread now sitting at KC -3, I believe the value is with the TB Money Line at +145 rather than taking the field goal. Play Tampa Bay on the Money Line at +145 on a strong 2* selection.

NOTE: I would also consider adding a 2 team parlay using Tampa Bay Money Line +145 with UNDER 55.5. This parlay will pay $100-$368 and is a 1* selection.