We had a successful NFL Week 1 going 4-2 while hitting both of our Top Plays. Our 4* ELITE release on Derek Henry OVER Rush Yards soared Over as we took full advantage of a very weak number. The Big Man rolled for 169 yards on just 18 carries with a long run of 49 yards. Henry continued his history of running rampant through the Bills D behind the Ravens very good O-Line. Unfortunately it was his 4th quarter fumble that opened the door for the Bills historic comeback in their astonishing 41-40 victory. Our other 4* ELITE selection on the Baltimore/Buffalo OVER was another easy Winner as the teams combined for 81 points. The Ravens led 34-19 after 3 quarters, so the wager was already in, before the Bills erupted for a 22-6 4th quarter for the win. The Baltimore offense looked unstoppable, behind Lamar and Henry, for 3 quarters and the Bills offense took over in the 4th. We may very well see a rerun of this classic in the AFC Championship game. Our only MLB play came through as our 2* STRONG Reds won 3-2 behind a brilliant effort by ace Hunter Greene who completely shut down the tough NY lineup over 7 innings allowing just 1 run on 1 hit with 12 strikeouts. The win kept the Reds, along with the Giants, just 4 games back of the Mets for the final Wild Card slot. We went 2-2 on our other four 1* SOLID NFL plays with the Colts (33-8) and Jags (26-10) winning and covering easily while the Steelers missed a PUSH by 1 point (34-32)and the Patriots were a no-show (13-20) in Vrabel’s first game at the helm. Adding 9.8 Units brings our rolling 193 day record to 295-203 for Plus 357.09 Units.
9-7-25 4* ELITE – (NFL Player Prop) Ravens – Derek Henry OVER 79.5 Rush Yards -110 (169) WIN
9-7-25 4* ELITE – (NFL) Baltimore/Buffalo OVER 50.5 -110 (81) WIN
9-7-25 2* STRONG – (MLB) Reds -120 (3-2) WIN
9-7-25 1* SOLID – (NFL) Jacksonville -3 (26-10) WIN
9-7-25 1* SOLID – (NFL) Colts -120 (33-8) WIN
9-7-25 1* SOLID – (NFL) Patriots -2.5 (13-20) LOSS
9-7-25 1* SOLID – (NFL) Steelers -3 (34-32) LOSS
9-7-25 4* ELITE – (NFL Player Prop) Baltimore – Derek Henry OVER 79.5 Rush Yards -110
Our numbers have Derek “The Machine” Henry rushing for 92 yards versus the middling Buffalo defense tonight, but we fully expect him to crack 100, which elevates this to the 4* Elite level. Henry has thrived in this matchup as he has rushed for 283 yards on 40 carries in his last 2 meetings with Buffalo and, overall, has exceeded this total in 14 of his last 19 games. In 2024 Buffalo gave up 4.6 yards per carry while Henry ran for 1,935 yards on 325 totes. Considering tonight’s game script will very likely have the Ravens depending heavily on a strong running attack behind their excellent offensive line, we see Henry having ample opportunity to rack up yardage and bust through for a long run or two. This is our TOP RANKED Player Prop on the Sunday card.
9-7-25 4* ELITE – (NFL) Baltimore/Buffalo OVER 50.5 -110
In a battle of two Excellent Offenses we see stops being few and far between and fully expect the final score to be well beyond the listed Total. These two last met on January 19th in the playoffs with the Bills squeaking by 27-25, with each team leaving points on the table. In that battle there were 689 combined yards and both teams had success on the ground with Baltimore rushing for 176 yards and 5.9 per carry. What’s changed? As noted above, Derek Henry should run at will tonight which sets up downfield shots to Zay Flowers and DeAndre Hopkins, as well as designed runs and scrambles for Lamar. It is nearly impossible to contain the Ravens offense over 4 quarters and the Bills defense looks to be really up against it here. On the other side Josh Allen and his weapons are always formidable, particularly at HOME, and we see them scoring plenty as well. This matchup likely comes down to the buzzer with OT a distinct possibility. Let the FIREWORKS begin!
9-7-25 (MLB) Reds -120
The Reds send ace Hunter Greene to the hill in a MUST GAME as they attempt to stay within earshot of the Mets for the final Wild Card spot. Greene enters this contest with a very solid 2.70 ERA and has been especially good at HOME of late. In his last 3 Home starts versus the high powered lineups of Toronto, Philadelphia and Milwaukee he has allowed just 3 runs on 13 hits over 17.1 innings. The Mets will send first time starter Brandon Sprout to the bump. Sprout carries a 3.19 ERA over his last 17 outings in AAA, and is considered one of the Mets top prospects, but making your debut at Great American Ballpark versus a desperate squad is no bargain. Look for Greene to stay sharp and for the Reds to go all out in a contest that means more to them than the Mets.
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