We will not be releasing a “Lock of the Year” from the NFL, the NBA or the Topeka Girls Volleyball Championship. You will not see us acting as circus barkers claiming we have hit our last 30 selections and have an 80% Winning Percentage since 1975. Anyone who has been around this game for a period of time has seen these types of ridiculous claims from scammers and fly by night “touts” looking to make a quick buck. If you have read the story “It Was January….1969”(Home Tab) you found a recounting of Super Bowl III which was arguably the biggest LOCK in NFL history as Johnny Unitas and the powerful Colts were installed as 18 point favorites over Joe Willy and the upstart Jets. The Final Score was Jets 16 – Colts 7…..enough said.
Success in this business comes from experience, hard work, information gathering, an understanding of statistics and current metrics, understanding the meaning of line moves, realizing where the “Smart Money” lies and securing the best line, among other things. There are no shortcuts. With that said, our primary strategy includes the following:
*WINNING PERCENTAGE: Long term profitability in Sports Betting is derived from winning more games (units) than you lose. Considering the Sportsbook has an inherent advantage with every wager placed, due to the player having to lay 11-10 odds on simple straight bets or having a sizable “spread” in other types of wagers, SCP will only release selections where we feel there is quantifiable value according to our process. This often results in fewer releases but a higher probability of winning. In Sports Betting there is a big difference between an “action bettor” and a “professional bettor”. The Pro is not betting 18 college football games on a Saturday in November and he could care less whether a game is on TV or not.
*RATING SYSTEM: For decades there have been discussions among Sports Bettors as to whether every wager should be for the same amount, or if certain games with higher perceived value should be bet stronger. The benefit in playing each wager for the same amount (1 unit for example) is the ability to weather inevitable long losing streaks without depleting your bankroll. The benefit in making a larger wager (2-3 units for example) when the perceived value in a certain game is higher is taking advantage of a stronger position to earn more profit. I have known professional Sports Bettors that have had success with each strategy. At SCP we subscribe to the latter approach. We strongly believe that there are certain games where, due to any number of factors, we have a decided edge over the bookmaker and those games will absolutely be bet more heavily. Our system rates games as follows and you can find an example of each under the SAMPLES tab:
1* Denotes a 3%-5% edge on the house (see SAMPLE – NFL Super Bowl parlay at bottom)
2* Considered a STRONG Selection (See SAMPLE – Baseball – Angels Team Total Over)
3* Considered a VERY STRONG Selection (See SAMPLE – College Football – Alabama)
4* Considered an ELITE Selection (see SAMPLE – College Basketball – Baylor)
As mentioned above there are times when we will step out with a 3 or 4 unit wager. But in general terms each single wager should be limited to 1%-3% of your bankroll.
TYPES OF WAGERS: Much like the RATING SYSTEM argument above, there are two schools of thought on the types of wagers that should be made to optimize the opportunity for success. Some believe sticking with straight bets (single game) on the side or total gives you the best chance of winning and keeping your bankroll. Others believe value can be found by adding exotic wagers such as Parlays, Teasers, Money Line bets, Team Totals, etc. to your repertoire. Again, we side with the latter argument. The objective in Sports Betting is PROFIT. By limiting the scope of your wagers you are also limiting your opportunity for Profit. There are many situations where exotic wagers offer plenty of value (a 2-Team Teaser in the NFL comes to mind) and we will use them periodically in our selections.
EXPECTATION: I have been involved with Sports Betting for nearly 40 years on a serious basis and have seen the good, the bad and the ugly…..as have my partners. So you will not get any nonsense here about ridiculous winning streaks or sensational winning percentages. This company came to be with a simple mantra; to use our experience and talents to give sports bettors a fighting chance in an industry where the odds are stacked against them. For the last 3+ decades I have personally advised three wealthy clients. Now the same time, effort and selections will be offered to those who choose to come aboard at what I feel is a very reasonable cost. If we do not perform at a profitable level over the course of any full baseball, football or basketball season an automatic Guarantee will apply for anyone that has purchased a FULL SEASON or COMBINATION PACKAGE (See GUARANTEE).
The goal at the beginning of every season is to achieve a 60% winning percentage. For those of you that are seasoned Sports Bettors you know that is a very difficult proposition. At 11-10 odds a bettor must hit 52.4% to break even. We do expect a winning percentage of 54%-56% over the course of an entire season which will result in a substantial profit. Along the way there will undoubtedly be the losing streaks and the bad beats that every Sports Bettor experiences. If you are the type of bettor that cannot understand that, or handle that emotionally, then this is likely not the service for you. The Sports Betting business is a daily grind that takes us on a roller coaster ride of highs and lows. You need to be committed for the long haul as this is certainly not a “get rich quick” endeavor. At the end of the day we just need to make sure there are more highs than lows.