April 5, 2021
4* BAYLOR +5 Gonzaga (-110)
2* BAYLOR Money Line (+188)
In a very rare Maximum Bet 4* selection I believe the oddsmakers have the wrong team favored tonight in the NCAA Championship game. Gonzaga reached this game by doing what they have done all season which is simply use better basketball players to out score mediocre opposition. They rolled through an extremely weak conference, toppled very average squads in Oklahoma, Creighton and USC without resistance, and then had to hold on for dear life against a very hot and offensively talented UCLA team that they simply could not stop.
Therein lies the edge in this matchup.
When facing an athletic team with multiple scorers the Gonzaga defense is a paper tiger. Baylor is the best 3 point shooting team in the nation and gets consistent production from all five spots on the court. With Butler, Mitchell and Teague equally adept offensively Gonzaga will have to pick their poison and Jalen Suggs can’t guard them all! I believe Baylor will score early and often and easily reach 80+ points. When Gonzaga has the ball they will face a Baylor team comprised of stout, physical, defense-first athletes who will not be intimidated in the least and who are going to make life very uncomfortable for the likes of Kispert and Timme who will be doubled and harassed for 40 minutes. Suggs will likely get his because he is just that good but, with Kispert and Timme largely held in check, the Bears will be more than happy to take their chances that Ayayi and Nembhard cannot do enough to beat them. Unless Butler, Mitchell and Teague all have off nights, Baylor is simply too versatile on offense and too strong on defense for Gonzaga to keep up for 40 minutes. Play Baylor +5 on a very rare Maximum Bet 4* selection. Also play Baylor Money Line +188 on a strong 2* selection.