January 11, 2021
4* PROP BET: DeVonta Smith (Alabama) OVER 8.5 Receptions (-115)
Maximum Bet 4* selections are very rare and this is the first one we have ever released on a Prop bet. But in this game, with this special receiver, against this pass defense it is warranted. Barring injury I honestly believe this play could cover by halftime and I would feel comfortable playing it up to 10. Let’s start here. Indiana’s Michael Penix carved up the Buckeye secondary to the tune of 491 yards and no sane person would ever confuse Penix and the Hoosier offense with Mac Jones and this Bama freight train. The Ohio State defensive braintrust is very aware that their secondary ranks 35th in the nation in “pass coverage” and 84th in “opponents big play passing” (per Pro Football Focus) so their strategy will be to keep the Bama receivers in front of them at all cost. This plays right into our hands as the Tide OC will be more than happy to feed Smith the ball on slants, short curls and bubble screens at every opportunity hoping to force the safeties up. I could give you 10 more reasons why this selection is elite but the simple fact is DeVonta Smith cannot be covered by any linebacker, corner of safety at the college level. Nick Saban is not going for his 6th championship in 12 years by accident and he knows Smith is the best player on the field. Saban will make certain he is targeted early and often which should result in DeVonta sailing past the listed total of 8.5 receptions.
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COLLEGE FOOTBALL (2nd SAMPLE)
January 11, 2021
3* ALABAMA -8.5 Ohio St (-110)
At first blush this seems like a ton of points to be giving a storied program like Ohio St in a Championship game; particularly when they are coming off the complete annihilation of a very good Clemson squad. But when digging deeper into the matchup I believe this line is high for a number of legitimate reasons. The most glaring of which is the well designed and unstoppable Crimson Tide passing game, led by Heisman favorites Mac Jones and DeVonta Smith, versus a very suspect Ohio St. secondary that was torched for 491 yards by none other than Indiana’s Michael Penix. Per Pro Football Focus the Buckeye secondary ranks 35th in “pass coverage” and 84th in “opponent big play passing” which hardly bodes well when facing this offensive machine. The Buckeye defense is up against it here. Their only chance of slowing down Bama’s formidable aerial attack is to play the safeties deep which opens up all kinds of short routes for the elusive and unguardable Smith, Metchie and possibly even Waddle who is expected to be available for a limited number of snaps. This defensive strategy also limits the help available when attempting to stop the powerful Najee Harris running behind an excellent offensive line anchored by seniors Leatherwood, Brown and Dickerson. This unit just received the Joe Moore Award as the “Most Outstanding Offensive Line Unit in College Football” and they deserve it. The Ohio St. defense is solid but no defense has been able to derail this versatile offensive freight train all season and, when all is said and done, this Bucks D is destined to be added to the scrap heap like all the others. There are also issues when the Buckeyes have the ball. While their numbers are impressive, a closer look unmasks the fact that these numbers have been amassed against the likes of Northwestern, Michigan St, Indiana, Nebraska and Rutgers….hardly the Murderers Row of college football. In addition star QB Justin Fields took a cheap shot to the ribs versus Clemson which, at the very least, should affect his mobility in this contest. With Fields scrambling ability limited the Buckeye offense essentially becomes a 2 trick pony with stud RB Sermon and big play threat WR Olave being the only remaining legitimate standouts. While this edition of the Alabama defense is not as dominant as past units they are stout up front and sound enough in the back. I look for the Tide to stack the box against Sermon, double Olave on the outside and force a less than 100% Fields to beat them from the pocket. Good luck with that as no Buckeye receiving option outside of Olave is cause for concern. The most likely scenario as to how this battle unfolds finds the Tide up 10-14 points by the end of the first quarter. This is a nightmare for Ohio St as the ability of Sermon to control the clock and the game on the ground becomes severely compromised. This also allows the Alabama pass rushers to pin their ears back and come after Fields knowing his normal stellar escapability is likely to be somewhat compromised by the rib injury. All things considered I see no path available where this Buckeye offense can keep pace with one of the greatest offensive juggernauts I have seen in college football in the last 40 years for a full 40 minutes, especially with Fields at less than 100%. Throw in the big game experience of Nick Saban for good measure and it looks like the coach secures his 6th National Championship in the last 12 years by a comfortable margin. Play ALABAMA to cover -8.5 on a very strong 3* selection.