NFL
February 7, 2021 - Super Bowl
2* TAMPA BAY Money Line +145 Chiefs
While I believe Tampa Bay has a number of advantages in this contest, in addition to playing on their home field, the presence of Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill on the other sideline limits this to a 2* selection, even though my numbers make the Bucs a small favorite. This game will be decided in the trenches where the ferocious Buccaneer front 7 will attempt to keep Mahomes on the run for 60 minutes. Considering the KC offensive line was already banged up entering the Buffalo game, and has now lost stalwart All Pro left tackle Eric Fisher, this could be a long and uncomfortable evening for the Chiefs QB. Kelce and Hill will no doubt get their catches, because they are just that damn good, but I do not see them dominating the game in the manner we have become accustomed to seeing. This TB secondary is solid and will benefit from having seen the Chiefs offense earlier in the season. With Mahomes under constant pressure the Buccaneer defense will do enough to give Tom Brady every opportunity to secure his 7th Super Bowl ring. As we have seen for many years now Brady is a master at taking what a defense gives him and executing game plans to perfection. His command of the offense and rapport with his new top shelf receiving corps progressed as the season wore on to the point where they are now a well oiled machine. The running game has also come together led by Fournette and Jones and I believe they will be the key here, just as they have been throughout the playoffs. Brady and the Tampa offensive braintrust will successfully use their strong running game, along with a controlled passing game, to bleed the clock and keep the electric Mahomes on the sideline. With the Buccaneer defense being the most dominant unit on the field, and with Brady using his big game experience to complete 3rd down passes and keep the chains moving, I believe the Chiefs come up short and the Lombardi Trophy finds a new home in Florida. With the consensus point spread now sitting at KC -3, I believe the value is with the TB Money Line at +145 rather than taking the field goal. Play Tampa Bay on the Money Line at +145 on a strong 2* selection.
NOTE: I would also consider adding a 2 team parlay using Tampa Bay Money Line +145 with UNDER 55.5. This parlay will pay $100-$368 and is a 1* selection.