We went 1-2 on Thursday releasing three parlays keying on the CLIPPERS Money Line, paired with 3 MLB plays. We were attempting to take advantage of the strong value our numbers had on the Clips Money Line. The Clippers did their part as they held off the Nuggets 111-105 to force a Game 7 in Denver, but we were foiled again late in MLB, for the second day in a row, by a bullpen meltdown. Our 2* STRONG parlay on the Clippers/Tigers won easily as Detroit whipped the Angels 10-4. Our 3* VERY STRONG parlay on the Clippers/Mets lost 4-2 as Zac Gallen surprisingly found his old form for an evening. Coming into this battle versus the hard hitting Mets, Galen had given up an unsightly 16 Earned Runs in 21.2 innings over his last 4 starts…..go figure. Our 4* ELITE parlay on the Clippers/Giants was the tough one to take as the Giants led 3-2 heading to the 8th inning before Tyler Rogers came in and gave up 2 runs to blow the game…..an 8 Unit Swing right there….ouch. With suspect bullpens everywhere killing us late, we will begin looking harder at First 5 plays going forward. Losing 4.13 Units brings our rolling 66 day record to 102-75 for PLUS 87.28 UNITS.
4* ELITE – (MLB/NBA) Parlay Clippers -248/ Giants -245 (4 Units to Win 3.9 Units) SF 3-4 LOSS
3* VERY STRONG – (MLB/NBA) Parlay Clippers -265/Mets -165 (3 Units to Win 3.8 Units) Mets 2-4 LOSS
2* STRONG – (MLB/NBA) Parlay Clippers -265/Tigers -130 (2 Units to Win 2.87 Units) Tigers 10-4 WIN
3* VERY STRONG – (MLB/NBA PARLAY) Mets -155/Clippers ML -265: 3 Units to Win 3.8 Units
Amazingly the Mets are 8-1 this season off a LOSS and are coming off last night’s 4-3 defeat to the Diamondbacks. NY will face off against Arizona’s Zac Gallen who is struggling mightily at 1-4 with a 5.57 ERA. In his last two starts it’s been worse with a 7.36 ERA in losses to the Cubs and Braves. As for the Mets, Kodai Senga has been fantastic allowing just 4 Earned Runs across 28 2/3 innings. We do not make a habit of playing against Arizona often but this matchup sets up very nicely for the Mets.
With their backs against the wall, the Clippers will roll tonight versus the Nuggets to force a Game 7.
2* STRONG – (MLB/NBA Parlay) Tigers -130/Clippers -265 (2 Units to Win 2.87 Units): The Tigers own a .735 OPS against lefties and should be able to hit struggling Angels starter Yusei Kikuchi, who has walked 18 batters in his last five starts. Detroit starter Casey Mize has been excellent in four of his five starts and has matured into one of the best starters in the American League. The Tigers also have a good bullpen behind him. The Angels are just not hitting consistently and have lost 5 straight (and 12 of 15) with 7 of those losses having been by more than 1 run. The Tigers definitely hold the edge in this matchup.
*The 2nd leg of the parlay backs the Clippers at HOME in a must win. The Clips fell asleep last game, allowing Murray to go off, and that will not happen again. Look for Kawhi Leonard to carry his team to victory and force a Game 7 back in Denver.
4* ELITE – (MLB/NBA Parlay) Giants -245/Clippers -248 (4 Units to Win 3.9 Units):
We do not often pair 2 higher odds teams in a parlay but when our numbers say the value is there we release it. We used this strategy several times during March Madness for 4* Elite plays and won every parlay. Our numbers say this parlay should return 4 Units to Win -3.45 Units so receiving 3.9 Units back is an Auto-Play. The Rockies have won 4 games all year. Their run differential per game is the WORST in MLB by a full run. They are 1-14 on the road. On the other side we have the Giants returning HOME off of 2 losses to the Padres and facing Kyle Freeland who has been terrible after a nice start. Freeland has allowed 5 Earned Runs in 3 of his last 4 starts. For the Giants Justin Verlander has been much better of late allowing just 2 Earned Runs in his last 12 innings. An angry Giants squad should walk away in this matchup.
*In the second leg of the parlay we look for the Clippers to find a way at HOME with their back against the wall as Kawhi Leonard leads an energized effort.
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