We had an excellent 4-0 SWEEP on Thursday as our RED HOT streak over the last couple of months continued. Our NFL Player Props ruled the day as all 3 plays hit, despite the game script not going exactly as planned, with Dallas actually having success on the ground. Our 3* VERY STRONG selection on Dallas Goedert OVER 3.5 Receptions was an easy Winner as the Eagles apparently forgot AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith were on the team with QB Jalen Hurts targeting them a total of 4 times! This left the door wide open for Goedert who caught all 7 targets for 44 yards. We mentioned in the write-up he would be targeted often for short passes and that is exactly what happened as his long gain was just 9 yards. Our 3 * VERY STRONG release on TE Jake Ferguson OVER 3.5 Receptions nearly mirrored that of Goedert as he caught 5 of 6 targets for just 23 yards with a long of a ridiculous 5 yards. Goedert and Cee Dee Lamb combined for 19 targets as Dak Prescott clearly had his favorites. Our 2* STRONG play on Cee Dee Lamb OVER 73 Yards SOARED PAST the Total as Lamb grabbed 7 of a whopping 13 targets for 110 yards. His total yards should have been far greater had he not had 3 drops; one of which was a long pass late in the 4th quarter that would have set up the Cowboys inside the Philly 20 with a good chance to win the game. It was a short 6 game slate in MLB but our 2* STRONG selection on the Phillies/Brewers UNDER came through as the expected pitching duel came to fruition in a 2-1 Philadelphia victory. Phillies Ranger Suarez continued his hot streak as he stifled the Brewers bats over 6 shutout innings and the bullpen did the rest. For the Brewers, Freddy Peralta was nearly unhittable once again as he BLANKED the Phillies over 5 innings on just 2 hits. This outing brings Peralta’s numbers over his last 6 starts to a Sandy Koufaz like realm as he has allowed 1 RUN on 13 Hits covering 33 innings. AMAZING! Adding 10 Units brings our 190 day record to 284-198 for Plus 335.81 Units.
9-4-25 3* VERY STRONG – (NFL Player Prop) Eagles – Dallas Goedert OVER 3.5 Receptions -110 (7) WIN
9-4-25 3* VERY STRONG – (NFL Player Prop) Cowboys – Jake Ferguson OVER 3.5 Receptions -155 (5) WIN
9-4-25 2* STRONG – (NFL Player Prop) Cowboys – Cee Dee Lamb OVER 73 Receiving Yards -110 (110) WIN
9-4-25 2* STRONG – (MLB) Phillies/Brewers UNDER 7.5 -105 (2-0) WIN
9-4-25 3* VERY STRONG – (NFL Player Prop) Eagles – Dallas Goedert OVER 3.5 Receptions -110
The game script for Philly in tonight’s clash between the Cowboys and Eagles figures to be Saquon Barkley left, right and up the middle with some Jalen Hurts runs mixed in for the Eagles. The Dallas run defense has been awful for quite awhile and will surely be tested early and often. When Hurts does throw we see him targeting TE Dallas Goedert on shorter routes over the middle where Micah Parsons used to patrol. The Cowboys must shade their pass defense toward star AJ Brown, while also attempting to corral solid WR2 DeVonta Smith, which leaves the capable Goedert singled up on linebackers and safeties. Hurts consistently looked for Goedert in the playoffs last season and that should continue here in a very positive situational spot. We expect Goedert to receive 6-7 short to mid range targets which present plenty of opportunities to grab at least 4 receptions.
9-4-25 3* VERY STRONG – (NFL Player Prop) Cowboys – Jake Ferguson OVER 3.5 Receptions -155
Considering the expected game script delineated above, TE Jake Ferguson figures to be in play tonight. It would be quite a leap to assume the porous Dallas defense will stop the multi faceted Eagles offense which means the Cowboys will be playing catch up all evening. With the Dallas running game likely to struggle, the Philly defense will certainly be uber conscious of where Cee Dee Lamb is at all times while also defending new addition George Pickens and his signature deep routes. Just as with Goedert above, this leaves the talented and sure handed Ferguson singled up on linebackers and safeties on short and mid range routes. Ferguson is now fully healthy and ready to reclaim his place as Dak Prescott’s trusted second option. The Cowboys most direct route to pulling the upset lies with sustaining drives and keeping Hurts and his weapons on the sidelines. With Lamb commanding respect on every play, and Prescott’s relationship with Pickens still in its infancy, we see Dak targeting Ferguson often to keep the chains moving. With Dallas likely playing from behind, the big Tight End should have no trouble eclipsing this fairly low receptions total.
9-4-25 2* STRONG – (NFL Player Prop) Cowboys – Cee Dee Lamb OVER 73 Receiving Yards -110
Again, considering the game script noted above, and the Cowboys likely having difficulty running the ball, and with Dak Prescott airing it out all evening, the Receiving Yards Prop on Cee Dee Lamb is simply TOO LOW. Not only has Prescott been known to force the ball to Lamb regardless of coverage, but the Philly defensive backfield is going through a transition this season and it is not hard to imagine Lamb taking advantage of a breakdown or two and getting loose downfield. Lamb will surely receive double digit targets and we see it as being more likely he goes off for 100 yards than ending up under 73.
9-4-25 2* STRONG – (MLB) Phillies/Brewers UNDER 7.5 -105
There is always some trepidation when backing an UNDER where two top offenses are involved but the pitching matchup this afternoon, and the fact that Yelich gets the day off for Milwaukee, warrants it here. Brewers starter Freddy Peralta has been the best pitcher in baseball since August began, permitting just 1 run on 11 hits over 28 innings covering his last 5 starts. Good luck to the Phillies, or anyone else, getting much of anything off Peralta in his current form. Ranger Suarez has had a couple bumps lately but, over his last 3 starts, he has righted the ship allowing just 3 runs on 17 hits over 18.2 innings. The Brewers offense is less formidable with their best hitter Yelich on the pine and we see the resurgent Suarez keeping them in check. In a battle that should have a playoff-type feel, with two very good pitchers on the bump, look for a hard fought, low scoring contest that is settled late.